A ban on new gas projects would exacerbate predicted energy shortfalls and could mean it runs out on Australia's the east coast by the end of the decade, modelling shows.
An Australian Energy Producers report examining a proposal by the Greens to ban gas investment said supply on the east coast would be interrupted within two years and run out by 2029 under the policy.
It predicted Western Australia would run out of gas for electricity from the early 2030s.
But a separate report by the Australia Institute dismissed claims of a shortfall to gas supply in the short or medium term, with the large amounts of exports leading to pressure on the domestic market.
The gas lobby is again rolling out the classic fearmongering about a gas shortage.— Australia Institute (@TheAusInstitute) It's a cover for them to justify opening up massive new export projects. Don't fall for the con job. Aus exports 35 times more gas than any predicted shortage. Read more below. #auspol pic.twitter.com/xT1mI4bxVlSeptember 16, 2024
Under the Greens energy policy, no new investment would be carried out for coal and gas projects, enabling Australia to meet emissions reductions targets.
But the Australian Energy Producers said such a move would lead to "significant disruption" for residential and commercial gas users.
"The investment ban scenario would bring forward and exacerbate forecast gas shortfalls resulting in major economic disruption in the southern region of the east coast market and in the west coast market," the report said.
A ban on gas investment would undermine energy security, Australian Energy Producers chief executive Samantha McCulloch said.
"The Australian economy will need gas to 2050 and beyond, and investment in new gas supply is urgently needed to meet demand," she said.
But the Australia Institute's research director Rod Campbell said gas shortfall claims were being exaggerated given the amount of the energy exported from Australia.
"We produce, burn and export a staggering amount of gas in this country,'' he said.
"The gas industry itself is the biggest user of gas in Australia due to the gas it burns to process LNG exports.
"To suggest there will be a gas shortage is absurd."
The institute said 80 per cent of Australia's gas was exported as LNG, with Australia one of the largest exporters in the world.
"The gas industry is talking out both sides of its mouth — it is saying there will be domestic shortages if we don't start opening up new gas fields, while at the same time advocating to expand export facilities," Mr Campbell said.