The Climate Council has painted a dire future for Shepparton, whether more is done to combat climate change or not.
In its latest research, incorporated into a digital climate risk report, the Climate Council claims more than 91 per cent of homes are at risk of riverine flooding by 2030 even when based on a low emissions scenario.
When the scenario is switched to a high emissions one, the Climate Council’s modelling suggests the risk rises only minutely.
The claims are part of the Climate Council’s latest attempt to raise awareness of the impacts of climate change into the future, and the need for greater action to be taken.
The Climate Council’s report includes the claim that one in 25 Australian homes nationally could be uninsurable by 2030.
It lists the seat of Nicholls, including its largest centre, Shepparton, as the highest risk electorate in the nation, with 37 per cent or 34,858 properties at risk from all climate change hazards, with riverine flooding the greatest threat.
The neighbouring Indi electorate, including the regional centres of Wodonga, Wangaratta, Benalla and Mansfield, is listed in eighth place.
The findings might surprise some, who have watched natural disasters, such as flooding, cyclones and fires, play out in other parts of the country in the past decade.
Shepparton and Mooroopna sit either side of the Goulburn River with the Broken River and Seven Creeks joining the Goulburn south of Mooroopna.
The two centres last flooded in 2010 when 13 houses and 31 buildings were flooded and 620 houses were isolated. They also had floods in 1870, 1916, 1974 and 1993.
According to the Climate Council, Nicholls sits atop a ‘high risk’ top 10, followed by the electorates of Richmond (NSW), Maranoa (Queensland), Moncrieff (Queensland), Wright (Queensland), Brisbane (Queensland), Griffith (Queensland), Indi (Victoria), Page (NSW) and Hindmarsh (South Australia).
Page includes the Lismore, Richmond Valley and Clarence Valley regions that recently experienced severe flooding in northern NSW.
Even a city such as Darwin, which faces the threat of cyclones of increased ferocity and frequency with global warming, could not unseat Nicholls at the top of the at-risk table, under the modelling.
The highest risk assessment given to any of the Darwin suburbs in 2030 was around 30 per cent for coastal inundation in Wickham.
But the report found there was no risk for Darwin’s suburbs from high or extreme wind, under any scenario, in 2030.
Campaigning in Shepparton on Tuesday for the federal election, Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce criticised the report as a highly politicised document and insulting to the people of Lismore who were rebuilding their lives after being wiped out by an historic flood.
“I think it is a massive exaggeration. It is just absurd,” he said.
“When people say something that extreme you actually diminish the rest of your message because people just switch off and say, ‘Garbage’.”
But Climate Council research director Dr Simon Bradshaw dismissed Mr Joyce’s criticism.
“We totally reject those points from Mr Joyce,” he said.
“The current government has presided over a decade of failure.
“Neither of the major parties have put forward commitments that align with the science.
“What we see from the map is that all communities are to face a variety of risks from climate change.
“Climate change impacts different areas in different ways.
“Flooding is a particular concern to the people of Shepparton. For Shepparton, and many parts of the country.
“Large parts of Shepparton are already at risk.
The Goulburn Valley, being mostly flat and intersected by a series of rivers and creeks, including the Campaspe and Boosey, makes it susceptible to flooding, particularly through a scenario of high flows and heavy rainfall coinciding.
One of the more severe examples saw Numurkah’s hospital rendered irreparable after flooding in the town in 2012.
The Climate Council considers a property in danger of becoming uninsurable, or too expensive to insure, when annual insurance costs equate to more than one per cent of the property replacement cost.
The Insurance Council of Australia did not answer questions directly related to Shepparton, but a spokesperson said at present “there is no area of Australia that is uninsurable, although there are some locations where there are clearly affordability and availability concerns”.
The Climate Council report has not shocked Greater Shepparton City Council, which declared a climate emergency in March 2020.
“We’re not surprised, we’re probably surprised we’re rated number one, but we’ve been ranked very highly for the at-risk councils for flooding for some time,” manager environment Sharon Terry said.
“It comes back to our topography. We’re a flood plain.
“We have the Goulburn River and a number of convergences nearby.”
Council is a member of the Climate Council’s City’s Power Partnership, which it uses to collaborate and help adapt to climate change.
“I guess the report raises the alarm levels a little bit and reinforces the council’s decision to declare a climate emergency,” Ms Terry said.
“Flooding is an identified risk and we’ve been working continually to update our flood modelling over the years.
“The modelling shows that because of the impact of climate change, we’re likely to see an increase in flooding from extreme storm events, from that overland flooding and heavy localised rain events.
“It’s a real concern. Obviously insurance companies are being hammered and it has been happening for two decades really, and it’s been exacerbated by climate change.
“It’s a real concern, we’re alarmed by this.“
Ms Terry said it was vital that a co-operative approach was taken to address the drivers of risks in the Goulburn Valley.
“Climate change is really going to take a whole-of-government approach, a whole-of-business approach, a whole-of-community approach,” she said.
“The key thing is that the first thing we need to do is address emissions.
“We’re tracking on the worst case scenario at the moment, we need to cut emissions.”