News chief correspondent Darren Linton this week sat down with Victorian Opposition leader Matthew Guy in the same place they spoke eight years ago, when he was first elected to lead the Liberal Party. So what has changed? And what does the man who would be premier have in store for the Goulburn Valley?
Matthew Guy sits down at the table in Shepparton’s Queen’s Gardens, relaxed and smiling.
The Victorian Liberal leader is having his second tilt at the job, having lost the 2018 election, and subsequently the party leadership.
In 2014, at the same location, I sat down with Mr Guy after he was first elected leader, and the contrast is stark.
In 2014 he was a man on a mission, urgent, uptight and not prone to small talk.
He was pressed for time, but politicians are always pressed for time and our meeting on Wednesday was no different.
In the preamble, we chat about country life, the connectivity between people. Later he’s visiting the new Museum of Vehicle Evolution in Kialla and reveals he’s always wanted to travel across the Nullarbor in a big rig, just for the experience.
Asked why he should be premier, Matthew Guy doesn’t flick the switch to political mode. He speaks softy and unlike in 2014, doesn’t appear to be reading from a crafted script in his head.
“Certainly, over the last four years the state has changed so dramatically. I don't think it'll just be about money and infrastructure this next election; it’s going to be about competence,” he says.
“It's going to be about our state's future. It's about where we're going as a community, as a state, in the next 20 or 30 years. I think more than ever Victorians are looking for a government to give them confidence and certainty. And that's not just about spending money. That's an attitude in government.”
What he’s offering is a “sense of purpose” and policy consistency.
Most of those policies are still to be released, but during his visit to Shepparton Mr Guy announced a $1 billion fund to boost manufacturing in the regions. It is clear that regional policy will be an important part of the Liberal-Nationals platform.
“It's more than just eliminating level crossings in Melbourne and a pittance for the regions. It's about a vision for all of us. And that's not necessarily money. That's about who we are as Victorians and what we believe in and where we're going. And I think that time is now,” Mr Guy says.
We don’t discuss lockdowns or the pandemic because by November next year we all hope to have come out the other side. He’s committed to repealing Labor’s recently passed pandemic laws, but for now we focus on the fact that political visits to the region have been sparing during the pandemic, and there’s a bit of catching up to do.
“Country driving is not a problem, I like it. I like going on the train, it's good to get out of Melbourne,” he says, revealing a raft of planned regional trips before Australia Day.
He’s interested in the changing face of Shepparton, the major additions to the cultural landscape and the surge in its attractiveness as a place to escape the big cities.
We get down to specifics, starting with the intractable position of the Shepparton Bypass.
The Australian Government has stumped up more than $200 million for its 80 per cent share and the Victorian Government has completed a business case. Neither will release it, and the whole thing has stalled, essentially because neither wants to publicly own the much bigger number it contains.
“It just needs to be built and I think people are over excuses,” Mr Guy says bluntly.
“Just release the business case, tell us how much it's going to cost, and then let's just get on with it.”
His reasoning, regardless of the number, is that Shepparton is a city, and it needs city infrastructure.
“It's become a city and it thinks like a city and thinks differently. And so, Shepparton is now wanting answers very quickly to some of its big problems. It's not going to be at the back of the list any more,” Mr Guy says.
“It's becoming confident, is becoming stronger but that also means that issues like the bypass can't be ignored any longer.
“Let's just get on with it. I don't think we want to see more delay. And I think we all know the cost is going to be greater than what was the quarter-of-a-billion that was originally planned or discussed, and we all know that.”
To wait is to stand in the way of Shepperton’s emergence as a major city.
“You know you can't have a major CBD with trucks, B-double trucks running down the centre of it because that changes the whole attitude of the CBD. So it's just common sense to take trucks out, not just from a public safety point of view, but for the whole operation of business,” Mr Guy says.
Growth requires new housing as well as industry and jobs, and Mr Guy is well aware of the supply issues facing regional cities such as Shepparton.
The Liberals and Nationals opposed the new windfall tax on the uplift in the value of regional land when it is rezoned for development.
“There's a lot of options now for population growth. Regional Queensland is growing very strongly, regional NSW is growing very strongly in places like Orange and Dubbo, so we can't put ourselves at a competitive disadvantage,” he says.
“So it's not a tax on developers. It's a tax on the retail end of homes. It's a tax on homebuyers because developers just pass the cost on. So it's fine to say we're taxing developers but that's not the truth.
“Another problem is housing supply, which is again, why we want to bring back the planning Flying Squad to help councils because there's no land to build homes.”
Mr Guy says while the pandemic is shifting populations to the regions, the wrong tax and planning mix can reverse the trend.
“If growth is not managed well then growth will cease and then you've killed a great opportunity to grow your city's economy, to grow your city’s jobs, social services, everything,” he says.
“You've got to have a bank of four to seven years of supply in your market, because that keeps developers competing against each other, which keeps the price down.
“But again, your previous point about the windfall gains, no developer is going to bring that land to market. This is a real problem. They won't bring it to market because they are thinking, well, I'm not going to pay a 50 per cent uplift, and then on top of that pay capital gains from the Feds, it's not worth it.”
Another issue for Shepparton, indeed everywhere, is the shortage of labour, both skilled and unskilled, which is also a barrier to growth.
“There's not going to be an easy fix to that because that is right around the country, and particularly in Victoria,” Mr Guy says.
“We need to have overseas students brought back quickly, much quicker. Again, I don't care if it's the state or the Feds, just fix it. Just fix it. Just get them back quicker. Have the quarantine facilities that should have been in place months ago.”
The conversation ends with “let’s talk trucks”, still dreaming of that trip across the Nullarbor.