It’s tightening, but the signs seem to be clear to the boffins and number crunchers — Labor will likely be returned to state government following next Saturday’s Victorian election.
Opposition leader Matthew Guy isn’t having a bar of it.
Fresh off announcing a fast-track of 50,000 new housing lots for regional Victoria in Shepparton and confirming the Coalition would pledge $260 million to build the bypass around Mooroopna, Mr Guy wasn’t contemplating losing his second election as Opposition leader.
He spoke to The News on the campaign trail in a seat the Coalition desperately wants to win back from independent Suzanna Sheed.
“If I wasn't a politician, I wouldn't live in Melbourne. I would probably live in country and regional Victoria,” he said, before immediately pivoting to his announcement hours before.
“I think a lot of people do now, and so our announcement of 50,000 new lots makes a lot of sense because a lot of people want to get out of Melbourne.
“The lifestyle outside of Melbourne particularly in centres like Shepparton is very good.”
The Oppositon is facing an uphill battle, with more than 20 seats to claw back.
It doesn’t faze Mr Guy.
“I've seen a lot of people try and be an electoral Nostradamus. I see a lot of people on social media trying to do that. Now, they're usually wrong,” he said.
"In the growth areas of Melbourne, there is a very deliberate and obvious anger at the government.
“They're very angry and want to know that this kind of behaviour from government won't happen again.”
He’s hoping that anger extends beyond Melbourne’s fringe to cities such as Shepparton, where the Coalition can claim back another seat it needs to form government — that held by Ms Sheed.
The sitting member hasn’t committed her support one way or another should neither party have the required numbers to govern outright.
Mr Guy said he didn’t spend much time on independents, brushing aside questions about whether he was worried the teal wave that swept the country in May would continue.
He also swatted away questions about whether the Coalition would repeat the negative attack ads targeted at independent candidate Rob Priestly during this year’s Federal Election.
“Every campaign has an element of positive and negative, but most of our campaign has been about what we want to do,” Mr Guy said.
“Suzanna will run her own campaign. I'm not interested in Suzanna or her campaign, and I'm not interested in the government (Labor's) campaign.
“I think the days of having a member who has to go and beg, borrow and steal back from the state government to ask for things, and the state government begrudgingly does it because of politics — that shouldn't be the case.”
What about if Labor gets in while a Coalition MP is elected in Shepparton? Wouldn’t that leave them needing to beg, borrow and steal for funding?
“We don’t intend to lose,” Mr Guy said.
Taking funding from Labor’s proposed Suburban Rail Loop to spend on health has been the Coalition’s big policy difference during this election campaign, and Mr Guy said there was never a chance the Coalition would simply save the money from that project, which he wants to scrap, to keep the budget in the black.
Mr Guy was always planning a big spend on health, and the money from scrapping the rail link would give him the piggy bank he needed to fund it.
“Fixing the health system is the biggest thing coming out of COVID, that’s the biggest challenge that we face, and so we know that that has got to be a priority,” he said.
“We always knew that the best thing we could do is re-prioritise that money back to where it's needed.”
Mr Guy visited Shepparton just after the floodwater had receded, and had seen the devastation across the state.
On the subject of climate change, he said the state needed a “sensible and realistic” transition to cut 50 per cent of emissions by 2030, partly by using gas, and also spruiked a $100 million soil initiative.
In the short-term, Mr Guy said places along major rivers would need to be “future-proofed” for more flooding, but it was something he would need to tackle in government — not ahead of time.
“There are challenges which we're going to have to face and you know, every generation faces different challenges and this will be ours,” he said.