The narrowing poll predictions for Labor and the Coalition ahead of Saturday’s Victorian election offer the enticing prospect of a hung parliament, where independents and minor parties have outsized influence.
We say ‘enticing’ because the Shepparton electorate would be in pole position, should the incumbent Member for Shepparton, Suzanna Sheed, win a third term.
A minority government last occurred when Steve Bracks led Labor to victory in a surprise win over Jeff Kennett, whose idea of Victoria reached barely beyond the tram tracks.
While Daniel Andrews has looked after the regions well, his government is showing signs of wear, particularly following the polarising lockdowns of the pandemic — and he faces unrest in Melbourne’s north and west, where health services, schools and public transport have failed to keep up with population growth.
No pollsters predict an outright win for the Coalition, however. Matthew Guy has performed well, but the Liberal Party is in a mess after a decade of internal scraps and a rightward shift — and is arguably unfit to govern. In comparison, the Nationals look like the adults in the room.
Irrespective of the likely outcome at state level, all elections are local — particularly where several capable and popular candidates are competing. Ms Sheed faces a tough fight to retain her seat, with the Nationals and Liberal candidates, Kim O’Keeffe and Cheryl Hammer respectively, swapping preferences against her.
In a bizarre move, both have preferenced Ms Sheed sixth, behind extremists such as the Freedom Party, Family First and the DLP. This reflects poorly on their judgment: on any analysis of Ms Sheed’s performance over the past eight years, she has proven highly effective. And being more concerned about the region than herself, for conservative voters she has preferenced Ms Hammer and Ms O’Keeffe second and third.
Aside from that, the main contenders have behaved well: their campaigns have been positive and avoided the grubby tactics we have witnessed in some recent elections. We congratulate them all for that.
But the choice for voters in a small community can be a difficult one. Ms O’Keeffe, Ms Hammer and Ms Sheed have all been strong community contributors in different ways. All are likeable, competent and have strong followings. We have no doubt that each would make a good local member.
As we have said before, however, we must focus on what is the best outcome for Shepparton — in the broader context of the state election. Ms Sheed has managed to extract unprecedented benefits for us in her first two terms — when neither Labor nor the Coalition particularly needed her support. This time, there is an excellent chance that one of them will really need her, giving her extraordinary influence. And she knows how to use it, to our advantage.
An independent holding the balance of power is often talked about (and hoped for) but seldom realised. We have in front of us now the best chance of it happening that we have ever seen. Why not go for gold?