The good news about tomorrow’s election is that the voters of Nicholls are almost certain to end up with a competent local member.
Each of the three leading candidates — Sam Birrell (Nationals) Steve Brooks (Liberal) and Rob Priestly (independent) — is capable of representing us effectively in Federal Parliament.
We are spoiled for choice: it is the most impressive and competitive field of candidates we have seen in living memory.
The tempering factor — the bad news — is that the relative effectiveness of each candidate to prosecute matters critical to our future depends entirely on who wins government.
Historically, whichever party has held government in Canberra has made little difference to the voters of Murray and now Nicholls: we are a conservative heartland so, whether our member is from the Nationals or the Liberal Party, we are mostly taken for granted as a consequence.
We think this is the likely outcome again: on the numbers, Mr Birrell will probably win the seat of Nicholls and head to Canberra.
But it could be a close-run thing — not only because Messrs Priestly and Brooks are equally capable but because of a deep-seated anger here about the way the two major parties and the federal Nationals have treated our concerns about water — the key to our future prosperity as Victoria’s foodbowl.
Added to that is growing unease about the seemingly desperate measures the Nationals are employing to discredit the reputable and accomplished independent candidate, Mr Priestly — a former deputy mayor, former Committee for Greater Shepparton chair and major local employer. They are doing so with the kind of distasteful robo-calling, push polling and misinformation we have seen from them before — dirty urban tactics that have no place in our community.
While Nationals HQ generated the campaign material, it reflects poorly on Mr Birrell, who campaigned as a “different” sort of National. He will have some bridges to repair in the community.
So Nicholls may indeed be ready for change. Both federal Labor and the Liberals are committed to delivering the flawed Murray-Darling Plan — a plan founded on politics rather than science more than a decade ago — to shore up their hold on a handful of marginal seats in South Australia.
To our chagrin, it has become obvious that the federal Nationals — beholden to the irrigators of the mismanaged Northern Basin — aren’t much better. The Goulburn Murray Irrigation District has been hung out to dry.
That said, if further water buy-backs out of our region are to be prevented or the Murray-Darling Plan’s target and impact re-examined — as they should be after 12 years of experience and changing climate — the Nationals remain our best hope. If the Coalition wins government.
And that is now a big ‘if’ — since it looks doubtful that the Coalition will have the numbers for a minority government, let alone a majority one.
In which case we are in trouble. Labor leader Anthony Albanese wasted no time on his first trip to Adelaide in the campaign assuring South Australians he would deliver on the Murray-Darling Plan, including using water buy-backs to achieve it.
Which brings us to the intriguing prospect of Mr Priestly being one of several independents that Labor would need to deal with in the event of a hung parliament. We are under no illusions about this — the chances of Mr Priestly holding the balance of power are slim — but some influence is more than possible.
Indeed, should Labor win government, having Mr Priestly as our local member would be our best chance of not only protecting our water but achieving progress on other issues: while the benefits of independents are derided by the major parties, the extraordinary success of Suzanna Sheed in winning major projects for Shepparton at state level puts paid to those arguments. When a Labor or minority government is in power, independents in conservative seats can be almost as effective as if they hold the balance of power.
At election time, the News has only one lens to look through, however: what is best for our readers — most of whom reside in Nicholls? Our view is that, should the Coalition be returned, Mr Birrell for the Nationals is our best choice, albeit carrying the stain of ugly behaviour by his party. Should Labor win government, Nicholls would clearly be better off with the independent, Mr Priestly.
And your guess as to who will win government tomorrow is as good as ours.