Big V Division One leaders Shepparton Gators season analysis

With five games to go, as Gators look to go one better in this season’s finals, take a deep dive into the stats with me to see the blueprint behind the Gators’ success.

Warning, this is going to get nerdy.

(These stats were taken from the Big V website following round 12 and are, of course, subject to change as the season progresses)

The Obvious

Let’s start with the standout stats.

The Gators have by far the best defence in the league, with just 965 points allowed with sixth-placed Warrandyte the only other team to allow less than 1000 at this point with 994 (and a significantly inferior offence).

They rank joint-fifth in offence with 1170 points scored, with fifth-placed Pakenham leading the way with 1411 (with a significantly inferior defence).

So standout number one, Gators win games with defence.

Shifting focus to the offensive end, let’s take a look at individual stats for a second.

Gators do not have a player that ranks top 10 in the league for points a game.

Derek Murphy and Nick Dodd lead the way for them, both averaging approximately 17 points and ranking in the mid-teens for the league (14th and 15th respectively).

They are the only team ranking top five on the ladder that doesn’t have a top-10 scorer aside from fourth-placed Gippsland United.

So standout number two, the Gators pass the ball.

Finally, they’re unbeaten at home.

More on that in a second.

Do Gators struggle on trips away from the Swamp?

Time to put the gloves on and dive into some advanced statistics.

As previously mentioned, the Gators’ two losses have came away from home.

The first one was in round two against Pakenham on the back end of a double-header, a game they lost by a slender three points.

The second came in round seven away at RMIT, a game they somehow managed to lose despite winning every quarter apart from the first, unable to come back from a 25-8 ambush immediately after tip-off.

While they’re unbeaten at the Swamp, the stats don’t suggest a large difference in output while playing home versus away.

Gators average roughly 85 points a game and hold their opponents to roughly 70, and that remains consistent in home and away games, give or take a few points.

The two losses can be described as anomalies or understandable given the context, and Shepparton could easily have a perfect record at this point in the season.

I understand your position on ifs and buts, but to suggest that the Gators genuinely struggle on the road is untrue.

Myth busted.

Guard duo lights-out

Skipper Matt Bartlett and Kiwi import Joshua Kooiman are snipers, ready to make anybody pay for not putting a hand in their face or for leaving them just a little bit of space out on the perimeter.

Kooiman has taken the sixth most threes in the league this season — 97 attempts with 39 made, good for 40 per cent.

Kooiman is the only player in the top 10 for attempts who shoots that high a percentage, making him arguably the best volume shooter in the league.

Bartlett is no slouch from behind the arc either, with 74 attempts (the 19th most in the league) and 30 made, coming to 40 per cent as well.

Bartlett and Kooiman are two of three players in the top 20 for attempts that shoot more than 40 per cent.

They rank top 10 in the league for assists a game, Bartlett coming in third with 5.3 and Kooiman ranking seventh with four.

RMIT is the only other team with two players in the top 10 for assists.

Bartlett is also the only player in the top five who averages no more than two turnovers a game, making him arguably the best playmaker in the league.

What are they feeding Dodd?

Nick Dodd has been on a hot streak of late, backing up his incredible 28-point night in the Bill McCarthy Memorial Shield game with 17 on a sublime five of six shots last time out.

It’s hard to ignore his frankly ridiculous efficiency.

He’s ranked ninth in total field goal percentage, shooting almost 58 per cent from all shot attempts, and is the only player in the top-10 to average more than 16 points a game.

But it’s his three-point shooting that will make your eyes bulge.

He shoots 56 per cent from three, ranking him fifth in the league for pure three-point percentage.

The four players that rank above him have shot one three and made one three.

Dodd has shot 32 and made 18.

Simply put, he’s been the best three-point shooter in the league, and it’s not close.

Derek dominance

Star import from Detroit Derek Murphy has not disappointed in his maiden season with the Gators.

Murphy is the only player in the league to lead his team in three statistical categories.

He is number one in points with 17 a game, rebounds with nine a game, steals with 1.6 a game as well as ranking third in the team for assists and blocks a game.

His efficiency leaves something to be desired, on 42 per cent from the field, 40 per cent from the free throw line, 13 per cent from three.

That said, his interior dominance cannot be understated, a prolific scorer at the rim who is able to leverage his athleticism into getting stops and rebounds on the defensive end.

Looking ahead (and back)

The Gators will embark on a series of away games in the coming weeks, taking on Gippsland and Warrandyte in a double-header before travelling to Bulleen the week after.

The Swamp eagerly anticipates their return home for a chance to seek redemption against RMIT on July 8.

Reflecting on the past 18 months, the loyal Shepparton faithful would undoubtedly be thrilled with the current position of the Gators.

With their sights set on cementing their position at the top, they aim to gather momentum as they approach the upcoming finals.

The team's ultimate goal is to secure a title, a feat it last accomplished in 2014 when it made its remarkable ascent to division one.

The completion of this goal would have the Gators gain promotion to the Championship for the first time in more than a decade, the top league in Big V that Shepparton dominated at the turn of the century.

That would mean history.

The Gators play Gippsland United on Saturday, June 24, at 7pm at Gippsland Regional Indoor Sports Centre.