With just one round to go in the Goulburn Valley League, a well-rested Echuca have only Shepparton Swans to negotiate in order to secure the minor premiership.
Regardless of the result, the Murray Bombers are guaranteed a top-two finish and a meeting with Shepparton Bears in the qualifying final in the first week of the post-season, but the defending premiers’ impressive percentage ensures them the number one seeding should they finish out the year with a win.
Having scored 1921 points in 2024 so far and conceded just 818, both marks the best in the league by some margin, Echuca holds a more-than 60 percentage-point advantage over its nearest rival.
How are the Murray Bombers putting up such big scores while simultaneously stifling their opponent’s offence? The statistics can provide us with some answers.
How Echuca scores its points does differentiate it somewhat from the rest of the league.
As a collective, the league generates 68 per cent of its scores from turnovers and 29 per cent from stoppages.
In contrast, Echuca proportionally makes more of an impact from stoppages (34 per cent) and less from opposition turnovers.
What this seems to indicate is that the Murray Bombers rely less on opponent mistakes and more on creating their own advantage from neutral play.
Echuca matches the league in scoring from ball-ups but is more effective at working towards the goal from centre bounces (10 per cent to 9 per cent) and throw-ins (10 per cent to 7 per cent).
Also of note is the Murray Bombers’ tendency and ability to work the ball into higher quality scoring shots.
A higher proportion of Echuca’s scores come from deep inside 50, the champions earning 33 per cent from these easier positions compared the league’s 27 per cent.
The Murray Bombers are scoring from marks inside 50 at a much higher rate (47 per cent) than the league (37 per cent), again getting the ball closer to the sticks than their rivals, and marking much more often in deep positions (25 per cent to 12 per cent).
On the defensive end, the cause of Echuca’s dominance is less clear.
The Murray Bombers trail slightly in many of the key defensive statistics, aside from intercept possessions, where they’re plus 3.2.
However, given its over 50-disposal-per-game advantage over the league average, trailing by just 3.2 in overall pressure acts means the champion is punching above its weight in terms of pressure per opponent possession.
Echuca’s score sources vs the league
Turnovers: 63% to 68%
Stoppages: 34% to 29%
Centre bounces: 10% to 9%
Ball-ups: 13% to 13%
Throw-ins: 10% to 7%
Inside-50s: 97% to 95%
Deep inside-50s: 33% to 27%
Marks inside 50: 47% to 37%
Deep: 25% to 12%