With a quarter of the Goulburn Valley League season remaining it’s number-crunching time at The News.
Now, we’ve seen our fair share of boilover results during season 2024, as you’re bound to find in any year; midway through the second term of last Saturday’s play, two or even three of those looked possible.
That said, the top and bottom sides have long since established a gulf in class, which means it’s fair at this stage of the campaign to take a look at each contending team’s run home.
Using the Cricket Shepparton Haisman Shield fixture breakdown as a guide, the premise is simple: each team has its remaining opponents’ ladder positions averaged out to inform us of who could pick up a few extra handy points — and who might be right up against it at the pointy end.
It looks cleaner if you arrange the rundown by current ladder position rather than sorting easiest to hardest, so let’s start with the two-time reigning premier.
Echuca (1st) — average position 6.25
When you’re the Murray Bombers, you go in favourites each and every week without exception.
A set of four games sitting on the more favourable end of the scale helps as well, with the most comfortable clash on paper looking like the split round meeting with Seymour, now out of the running, at Kings Park on August 3.
That said, the Lions tested Echuca to an extent beyond what most forecast last weekend given their own struggles this year before raw talent and quality eventually triumphed.
The Murray Bombers can expect to be put through their paces intensely over the coming pair of games before meeting Seymour, though, with a visit from a resurgent Euroa side looming after a handy win over fellow top-four outfit Mooroopna.
Their penultimate fixture against Rochester looms as an enormous meeting in the western district, though — a chance for Echuca to correct its one and only blemish in season 2024.
Shepparton (2nd) — average position 7
The undisputed highlight of the Bears’ run home was their first and highest-profile assignment — a trip west to conquer Rochester last Saturday.
Ted Lindon’s side has bounced back with four emphatic results after taking its medicine at the hands of Echuca and having its fairytale opening to the year snapped.
Few, if any, have had viable answers for the Bears’ usual midfield suspects, and they should go in comfortable favourites in all of their games with particular regard to round 15 at home to Seymour.
With that in mind, they have three of their remaining four fixtures in common with Echuca, with the Bombers on the final day serving as the only point of difference on a crucial weekend.
Rochester (3rd) — average position 6.75
Talk about a polarising set of games.
Ash Watson’s squad is in for one hell of a roller-coaster over the final four games of a remarkable campaign, dealing with two other sides in the top four as well as two bottom-three teams, which plants the average opposing position firmly in the middle.
Shepparton presented a huge obstacle as the last team that took the chocolates from the notoriously fast-finishing Rochester side, ending its brilliant winning streak to complete a double over the Tigers.
The Tigers sit two games behind the pace-setting Echuca, meaning the double-chance will probably require a perfect run from here.
It goes virtually without saying, then, that Tatura in round 15 and Shepparton United on the final day simply must be four points.
The advantage Rochester does have, though, is the back-pocket mindset no other club can claim — no fear of Echuca in round 16 after famously knocking the Murray Bombers over in May.
Mooroopna (4th) — average position 6.6
You could perhaps make the case that Mooroopna has the most challenging schedule solely because it still has six matches to everyone else’s five, but there’s more to it.
John Lamont’s side clearly had the toughest start to its run home when the Echuca green machine rolled over the Cats, and there are few obvious-looking sources of points beyond that with the Swans, Bombers and Eagles to come.
The Cats do benefit from nearly zero travel until their final-round clash down south against Seymour, but the scenarios are wide-ranging as to what the picture could look like by that point with a stern Rochester test coming a week prior.
Having fended off patches of competitiveness from Benalla and Tatura across the past fortnight, Lamont’s men will certainly hope the necessary runs are already on the board with a berth in the top two looking near-impossible and fourth spot anything but certain.
Euroa (5th) — average position 5
One of the good pieces of news for Mooroopna with a tricky run home is that a much tougher path belongs to the team one win below it.
The Magpies not only had the chance to end Shepparton Swans’ would-be fairytale recovery in the second half of the year, but bank a precious set of four points with Echuca and Shepparton awaiting over the next two rounds.
Having failed that task, the Magpies are likely to face several weeks of anxious waits and nervous refreshes of the Play AFL app on Saturdays unless an enormous upset is in the offing from Ryan Pendlebury’s men.
Only one home game — against the Bears — remains and, while a trip further up the Hume to Benalla is surely winnable, all likelihood seems to suggest that just about everything will be there to play for once Euroa heads to the high country for a potential all-or-nothing clash with Mansfield.
The 2022 runners-up should not be thoroughly discounted, though, having achieved highly on a consistent basis since the pandemic.
Kyabram (6th) — average position 6.5
The Bombers, grand finalists last year and hardly beatable at all for the better part of half a decade not so long ago, have a bit of a roller-coaster ride ahead.
Corey Carver’s side, which has spent large parts of the year living and dying by the sword of swashbuckling scoring bursts, will need to deliver the consistent goods just to break even across its final month of play.
A visit from Shepparton United this weekend is perhaps something close to an ideal start, but unfinished business lies on the other side against a Mooroopna side that did just enough to stave off a late Bomber surge in round one.
That clash became a precursor to the kind of inconsistencies that have often plagued Kyabram this season, but a Seymour side looking far healthier than it did two months ago would be no pushover.
That just leaves the Bears at Wilf Cox to wrap things up — an epic 2018 grand final rematch with a bunch of Shepparton’s stars from that fateful day back in the squad, and maybe a win-or-go-home situation for the home side.
Mansfield (7th) — average position 7.75
It’s not been easy for Mansfield of late, but nobody has a more favourable run-in towards finals contention than the Eagles.
Currently sitting at 6-8 and with a percentage just barely below parity, Jack Hutchins’ side will have no choice but to square the win-loss ledger and move well and truly above 100 in taking a trip to Benalla this weekend before hosting Tatura the following Saturday.
Any less and it would take significant help from elsewhere to lock in a place after sitting in the top six for the vast majority of the season.
Nothing is secure even if the Eagles establish an 8-8 record with what should almost certainly be the most intriguing clash in the second half of the split round away at Mooroopna.
By the time the moment comes to welcome Euroa to the high country on the final day, there are so many moving parts that it may become an elimination final in its own right.
Shepparton Swans (8th) — average position 4.5
The Swans passed a significant test last weekend in staving off Euroa and keeping things alive.
Indeed, they have passed numerous tests across the past month after languishing at 3-8 with hope seemingly all but lost.
Though Jedd Wright would not be drawn on suggestions the fairytale may have some life yet, they’ve come far enough to be worth talking about at this late stage.
The only problem? Nothing short of a nightmarish fixture on the back end that features three top-four outfits, including the biggest stumbling block of all on the final day.
Mooroopna at home might appear the tamest of the three on paper, with the Swans less than a kick from victory last time they met, even a single defeat likely concludes the late-season revival.
Shepparton United at Deakin Reserve could further galvanise the red and white’s momentum should they conquer Mooroopna, but it doesn’t get much more confronting than a final fortnight of Shepparton and Echuca.
More than one miracle will need to transpire for the Swans, but to have remained in the conversation to this point was perhaps a moral victory.