Murray Football League has a race for September both fascinating and fierce — but best of all, it’s full of maths.
It’s once again time for a breakdown of all the implications, and there sure are many, as a hugely intriguing final round of football looms Saturday.
Congupna has more than done its job as a clear and convincing minor premier, which was booked in a number of weeks ago, and its fixture with Echuca United has little on the line as a result.
That said, positions two to eight are uncertain on a colossal slate of fixtures that has third against sixth, second against eighth and a huge collision of sixth and seventh.
The picture for the current silver medal position, held by Finley, is simple enough to get out of the way first: defeat to Nathalia would open the door for Moama to take its spot by virtue of better percentage, should the Pies knock over Numurkah.
The rest gets a little murky from here, so let’s work our way down, club by club.
3. Moama - 46pts, 146.7%, Numurkah (H)
With a win: Second if Finley loses, otherwise third
With a loss: Third if margin is under 90 points and Rams lose, fourth if margin is under 90 and Rams win, fifth if margin is over 90 and Rams win
The Magpies may well have aspirations of claiming second in the event Finley slips up against the Purples, but as the only side on this list who cannot finish sixth, there is an element of security in that.
Granted, it would take an enormous shock defeat to the Blues to create a seriously unsettling picture for Moama, but with Deniliquin heavily favoured to knock over Barooga, the four points would be best kept in black and white for total security.
It’s a very healthy percentage and one that wields great power over Numurkah with the two sides virtually on their own plane in the finals race by virtue of having draws on their records.
Last year’s grand finalists hold almost everything in their own hands and will head into Saturday as favourites to keep it that way.
4. Deniliquin Rams - 44pts, 136.6%, Barooga (H)
With a win: Third if Moama loses, fourth if winning margin is under 100 points and Moama draws
With a loss: Fourth if Cobram wins with less than a 20-point swing plus Numurkah loses, fifth if one of Numurkah or Mulwala wins, sixth if Numurkah wins and there is greater than a 20-point swing with Cobram
It gets a bit foggy for the Rams with a swathe of different possibilities in play, but on the plus side, a finals berth is at least assured.
The fixturing stars aligned for the Rams, who benefit from Mulwala and Cobram having to meet one another.
Should Numurkah do its job just over the border, a finals entry as third seed could be beneficial — but by the same token, a Blues win could make things all the more challenging if the Rams don’t hold up their own end.
Percentage is a precarious thing as well, with precious little wiggle room protecting them from Cobram, sitting a game behind, and boasting an inferior tally to Mulwala.
It would surely go down as one of the stories of the season if Barooga caused the enormous boilover here, but the Rams’ hopes of moving up the table rely primarily on events at Moama.
5. Numurkah - 42pts, 125.7%, Moama (A)
With a win: Third if margin is over 90 points and Rams lose, otherwise fourth
With a loss: Sixth if Nathalia fails to win, otherwise out
One would imagine that the town of Numurkah needs no reminding as to its difficult recent history with tight scenarios on the final day.
In a staggering turn of events back during the last Cricket Shepparton Haisman Shield campaign, the Blues sat one wicket away from a guaranteed top-four spot only to find themselves eliminated in a feast-or-famine shock that made more than a few heads spin.
This is, of course, a totally different game, but there’s a saying about mistakes not learned from.
Anyway, Numurkah won’t go in favourite on Saturday, but if it’s any consolation for it, Finley will.
Third would take something beyond extraordinary, but fourth is still a profit ... one might want to consider bringing a spare Cats scarf, though.
6. Mulwala - 40pts, 142.9%, Cobram (H)
To finish fourth: Fourth if Rams lose and Numurkah fails to win
To finish fifth: Win and one of Rams or Numurkah loses, otherwise sixth, out if defeated
The reigning premiers have a fight on their hands to extend their flag defence beyond Saturday afternoon.
A meeting between sixth and seventh, to state the bleeding obvious, typically guarantees one thing — the loser can kiss its season goodbye.
That is, however ... if there is a loser at all.
A draw, as it so happens, would conveniently advance both sides unless Nathalia produced an almost record-setting winning margin in beating Finley.
A handful of sides would stand to benefit from the Rams slipping on quite a banana peel, so it might not be worth putting too much stock in it, but there’s still room to move if Moama handles its business.
Boasting the league’s third-best percentage certainly has its perks, but victory in a 2022 grand final rematch is the only sure-fire ticket to September football.
7. Cobram - 40pts, 134.7%, Mulwala (A)
To finish fourth: Win and Rams lose with a combined swing of 20+ points plus Numurkah fails to win
To finish fifth: Win and Rams lose with a combined swing of 20+ points and Numurkah wins, otherwise sixth, out if defeated
Naturally, it’s a very similar situation on the opposite side of the coin for the side co-coached by Tyron Baden and Tim Garlick.
Unlike Mulwala, though, the Tigers would require a rather modest points swing to benefit from a Barooga upset, but the circumstances are near-identical otherwise.
Deniliquin may instead be Cobram’s best friend if the yellow and black can take the points home from Mulwala.
Finishing sixth likely leaves either the Rams, who the Tigers have beaten this year, or the Magpies, who won their only meeting by five points, as elimination final opponents unless Nathalia springs the upset and Finley places third — not that they’d be fearful of the Cats after a seven-goal round two beating.
Depending on whether Cobram supporters are playing the long game or just hopeful of securing the best position now, there are a couple of different ways to look at this one.
8. Nathalia - 38pts, 127.4%, Finley (A)
To finish sixth: Win and Mulwala v Cobram has a winner, otherwise out
Cheering on one team to beat another is usually a straightforward proposition, but as long as one team actually does so, there’s hope yet for the Purples.
Of course, that’s not to downplay the huge task awaiting Nathalia up the Riverina this weekend.
The last meeting between these two teams was drawn, a fact sure to further heighten the impetus on the two teams immediately above Nathalia to go all-out knowing the Purples can match Finley as few have this season.
All four points are the only available option this time around, though, so league second-placed goal-kicker Liam Evans will be a focal point as his side seeks to snatch an unlikely berth.
It almost feels strange to suggest this would be an unlikely outcome, given Nathalia is actually the second-highest scoring side behind only Congupna, but there are no premiership points on offer for that.
It’s entirely possible there will be two teams missing finals with a percentage greater than 130 as one of the more fascinating finals run-ins throughout this region in recent times gets set for a grandstand conclusion.
The News will be running a live blog across Saturday afternoon’s action as the Goulburn Valley and Murray leagues wrap up their home and away seasons, so stay tuned to The News’ Sport website for updates during the day.