I had a sweet new year’s greeting from one of my favourites, Brenda from Boosey:
Dear General,
Happy new year, you handsome brute! Please brighten up another year for me and dogs everywhere. Why not give us your predictions? The humans seem to like doing that. Loving slurps xx
Brenda
Dear Brenda,
The humans do like making predictions, but they’re not very good at it — and the problem is that the rewards are weak, like you and me being given a single speck of kibble for good behaviour.
If their prediction turns out to be right, they can skite about it, but their friends can’t remember whether they did or didn’t. And besides, they invariably conclude it was more luck than brains.
On the other hand, no-one gets punished for making a poor prediction — except, The Boss says, the Governor of the Reserve Bank, whose main job is to put up with being belted by hindsight. And, of course, the weather bureau.
The Boss is fond of quoting Paul Samuelson, a professor at MIT, who joked — way back in 1982 — that economists have predicted nine out of the past five recessions. By now, the ratio is around 20 of the past nine recessions, including last year, when most economists gravely whispered the ‘R’ word. But it never happened.
Then there was the Danish physicist, Niels Bohr, who said: “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”
And as we found, no-one predicted the brutal Hamas attack on October 7, least of all the Israelis. Or that 2023 would be the hottest year for the planet on record; or that artificial intelligence would explode into the public domain with ChatGPT, giving everyone the chance to play with it.
So, Brenda, the humans keep craving certainty in an uncertain world. They confidently make plans on the bold assumption that things will go on roughly as they are, when dogs everywhere know that the world keeps delivering surprises.
The predictions I prefer are the ones I can bring to fruition. I predict that I will be fed at five o’clock sharp and, if I haven’t been, I stare fixedly at The Boss or the Missus. Then I get in their way so they have to walk around me; then I try to herd them towards the food bin. If that isn’t getting their attention, I whimper pathetically and, when all else fails, bark vigorously until they act.
You have to make your predictions happen, Brenda. And if you’ve never believed in the power of one person to change the world, you’ve never eaten an undercooked bat.
That was another surprise the world didn’t see coming. But, as you know, we made the best of it, and the pandemic was a big plus for canines. The humans needed us more than ever in those uncertain times.
While The Boss is inclined to quote Benjamin Franklin, who, after signing the American Constitution, said, “Nothing is certain except death and taxes”, I confidently predict that the sun will rise tomorrow and even the next day. And the world will go on having its ups and downs.
That’s about it, Brenda. As the wise old tortoise and kung fu master Oogway said: “Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery and today is a gift. That’s why they call it the present.” Woof!
– The General